๐๐จ๐ฏ๐๐ฆ๐๐๐ซ ๐๐, ๐๐๐๐
* ๐๐ก๐ ๐๐๐ ๐ญ๐ซ๐๐๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ซ๐๐ง๐ ๐: ๐,๐๐๐๐ฉ๐ญ – ๐,๐๐๐๐ฉ๐ญ (๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ ๐๐ฅ๐จ๐ฌ๐:ย ๐,๐๐๐๐ฉ๐ญ)
* ๐๐๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐๐ญ๐ซ๐๐๐ญ ๐ฐ๐๐ฌ ๐๐ฅ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐ ๐ก๐จ๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฒ
* ๐๐ก๐ ๐๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐ฑ๐ฉ๐๐๐ญ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ฑ๐ญ๐๐ง๐ ๐ ๐๐ข๐ง ๐จ๐ง ๐ฌ๐ญ๐๐๐ฅ๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ ๐จ๐ข๐ฅ ๐๐ฅ๐จ๐ฌ๐ , ๐ญ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ ๐ก ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ฒ ๐ฉ๐ซ๐จ๐๐ข๐ญ-๐ญ๐๐ค๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ฌ
Morning,
The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) today (11/27) is expected to be in the range of 5,725pt โ 5,825pt, to fluctuate and be supported by stronger USDIDR and oil close. Meanwhile, the stock markets in Asia opened with litle change this morning while awaiting the release data of Chinaโs industrial profit.
๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ข๐ง๐ข๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฒ:ย ๐๐๐จ๐ง๐จ๐ฆ๐ฒ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ ๐ซ๐จ๐ฐ ๐๐ฒ -๐.๐% ๐๐จ๐ – ๐.๐% ๐๐จ๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ฒ๐๐๐ซ
In the latest interview quoted by the media, Finance Minister Sri Mulyani ย stated that the government revised down the upper range of this year economic growth to -0.6% YoY ย from previously 0% YoY ย set on September.
The latest estimate of Indonesia GDP growth of ย -1,7% YoY to -0.6% YoY , however, is somehow more optimistic as compared to -1.5% YoY (IMF), -1.6% YoY to -2% YoY (World Bank), -3.3% (OECD), -2% YoY (median Bloomberg). Given the latest encouraging development of COVID-19 handling in Jakarta and nationwide, it is likely that governmentโs estimate be within reach, mostly also for the following factors.ย 1) favourable impact of government spending adjustment since the COVID-19 break out, ย also reflected in the 4.67% budget deficits to the GDP ratio in October, or unusually high as compared to normal years of the range of 1.6% to ย 2.4% to ย GDP , 2) pleasant surprise from commodity price that has seen CPO, Coal, and later WTI is trending up, 3) prudent spending pattern of the population. At least, these 3 (three) factors, combined with the low-base effect of the countryโs income is expected support the economy to pass this yearโs critical time in a relatively better shape as compared to other countries, in our note.
At the other end, yesterday ย ย the WTI price closed higher by 0.3% at USD45.9/barrel as compared to the previous close, on higher-than-expected drawdown of the United States oil inventory. Meanwhile, the USDIDR ย closedย at IDR14.130 ย vs. IDR14.169 the previous one.
We advise the following recommendations, for both trading and longer-time investment purpose. ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐ (๐ฌ๐๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ ๐จ๐ ๐๐จ๐ณ๐ช, ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐จ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ ๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ฏ๐ฅ๐ฆ๐ณ๐ธ๐ฆ๐ช๐จ๐ฉ๐ต ), ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐ (๐ฌ๐๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฐ๐ข๐ญ ๐๐ช๐ฏ๐ช๐ฏ๐จ, ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐จ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ ๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ข๐ณ๐ฌ๐ฆ๐ต-๐ธ๐ฆ๐ช๐จ๐ฉ๐ต), ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐ (๐ฌ๐๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฐ๐ฏ๐ด๐ถ๐ฎ๐ฆ๐ณ, ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐จ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ ๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ท๐ฆ๐ณ๐ธ๐ฆ๐ช๐จ๐ฉ๐ต ), ๐๐๐๐ (๐ฌ๐๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ถ๐ต๐ฐ๐ฎ๐ข๐ต๐ช๐ท๐ฆ, ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐จ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ ๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ข๐ณ๐ฌ๐ฆ๐ต-๐ธ๐ฆ๐ช๐จ๐ฉ๐ต), ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐ (๐ฌ๐๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ณ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฆ, ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐จ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ ๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ท๐ฆ๐ณ๐ธ๐ฆ๐ช๐จ๐ฉ๐ต),๐๐ง๐ ๐๐๐๐ (๐ฌ๐๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ข๐ด๐ช๐ค ๐๐ฏ๐ฅ๐ถ๐ด๐ต๐ณ๐บ, ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐จ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ ๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ข๐ณ๐ฌ๐ฆ๐ต-๐ธ๐ฆ๐ช๐จ๐ฉ๐ต).
Cheers,