The JCI August 7, 2020
Aᴜɢᴜsᴛ 7, 2020
* Tʜᴇ JCI ᴛʀᴀᴅɪɴɢ ʀᴀɴɢᴇ: 5,125ᴘᴛ – 5,225ᴘᴛ (Yᴇsᴛᴇʀᴅᴀʏ ᴄʟᴏsᴇ: 5,178ᴘᴛ)
* Wᴀʟʟ Sᴛʀᴇᴇᴛ ᴇɴᴅᴇᴅ ʜɪɢʜᴇʀ ʙʏ ᴄʟᴏsᴇ ᴛᴏ 1% ᴏɴ ʀᴀʟʟʏ ᴏꜰ ᴛᴇᴄʜ sᴛᴏᴄᴋs Aᴘᴘʟᴇ, Fᴀᴄᴇʙᴏᴏᴋ, Aᴍᴀᴢᴏɴ
* Tʜᴇ JCI ɪs ᴇxᴘᴇᴄᴛᴇᴅ ᴛᴏ ᴄᴏɴsᴏʟɪᴅᴀᴛᴇ ᴀɴᴅ sᴜᴘᴘᴏʀᴛᴇᴅ ʙʏ sᴛᴀʙʟᴇ USDIDR ᴄʟᴏsᴇ
Morning,
The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) today (7/8) is expected to be in the range of 5,125pt – 5,225pt to be in consolidation phase yet supported by stable USDIDR and oil close. Meanwhile, yesterday (6/8) in Wall Street the DJIA ended higher by 186 points or 0.7% at 27,387pt , while the S&P500 and the Nasdaq gained by 0.6% and 1.0%, respectively.
𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐨𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐢𝐚 𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐮𝐦𝐞𝐫 𝐒𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫
𝐁𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐟𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐜𝐨𝐥𝐥𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐞𝐟𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐭 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐛 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐂𝐎𝐕𝐈𝐃-𝟏𝟗 𝐯𝐢𝐫𝐮𝐬 𝐬𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐝
Statistics on the sector of Wholesale and Retail, Car & Motorcycle Services contracted by 7.6% YoY (vs. 5.3% YoY the GDP) in 2Q20 and grew by 1.6% in the 1Q20. During the first semester this year, the sector contracted by 3.0% YoY (1H19: +4.9% YoY). The sector, which has been the third biggest contributor to Indonesia economy, and is among the most prone to lock-down situation arose from COVID-19 spread, in our view. This is because the sector involved in the sale of “almost-basic-need” of goods and services for consumers, in our view. While it has been hardest hit by the impact of limited consumers activities during the 2Q20, the sector however will jump-start business on the earliest sign of pandemic recovery, in our note. In the listed company, Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI) is a general representative one whereby financials in the 2Q20 reflected the limited consumers’ activities, in contrast to that of in 2019, and in the 1Q20.
At the other end, since the relaxation measure on the limited lock-down in the country on June 15, COVID-19 new cases have been in the rise. While this has been due to the fact that more tests have been performed, new cases arose also from contagious impact through non-protected contacts among group of people. This has been indicated from the fluctuating but increasing Positivity Rates in Jakarta city at 15.0% on August 5, as compared to daily average of 11.8% during 1/8-5/8.
Calculation of Positivity Rates for other countries (by data source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/) pointed that Singapore was at 3.7%, Japan at 4.5%, the United States of America at 8%, while Brazil was at 22.1%, and Indonesia at 7.3%.
A comparison to world-average of Mortality Rates (92 deaths of 1 million population) Indonesia is among the lowest at 20 cases (USA at 491 cases, Brazil at 464 cases, and India at 30 cases, among others). Nevertheless, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, rate lower, at 4 cases, 5 cases, and 6 cases, respectively.
At the above profile, Indonesia is currently some steps ahead as compared to other countries, in our note. However, discipline on application of measures on preventions and recovery protocols will determine the next immediate future position.
At the other end, yesterday the WTI price closed lower by 0.6% to USD41.9/barrel on demand worries. Meanwhile the USDIDR closed at IDR14.587 vs. IDR14.623 the previous one.
We advise the following recommendation , for both trading and longer-time investment purpose. 𝐀𝐀𝐋𝐈, 𝐋𝐒𝐈𝐏 (𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫 𝐨𝐟 𝘈𝘨𝘳𝘪, 𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐨𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐬𝐮𝐠𝐠𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝘜𝘯𝘥𝘦𝘳𝘸𝘦𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘵 ), 𝐔𝐍𝐓𝐑, 𝐈𝐓𝐌𝐆, 𝐀𝐃𝐑𝐎, 𝐏𝐓𝐁𝐀 (𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫 𝐨𝐟 𝘊𝘰𝘢𝘭 𝘔𝘪𝘯𝘪𝘯𝘨, 𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐨𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐬𝐮𝐠𝐠𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝘔𝘢𝘳𝘬𝘦𝘵-𝘸𝘦𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘵), 𝐆𝐆𝐑𝐌, 𝐔𝐍𝐕𝐑, 𝐈𝐂𝐁𝐏 (𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫 𝐨𝐟 𝘊𝘰𝘯𝘴𝘶𝘮𝘦𝘳, 𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐨𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐬𝐮𝐠𝐠𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝘖𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘸𝘦𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘵 ), 𝐀𝐒𝐈𝐈 (𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫 𝐨𝐟 𝘈𝘶𝘵𝘰𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘷𝘦, 𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐨𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐬𝐮𝐠𝐠𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝘔𝘢𝘳𝘬𝘦𝘵-𝘸𝘦𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘵), 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐀𝐂𝐄𝐒, 𝐒𝐂𝐌𝐀, 𝐌𝐀𝐏𝐈 (𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫 𝐨𝐟 𝘛𝘳𝘢𝘥𝘦, 𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐨𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐬𝐮𝐠𝐠𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝘖𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘸𝘦𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘵),𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐓𝐊𝐈𝐌 (𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫 𝐨𝐟 𝘉𝘢𝘴𝘪𝘤 𝘐𝘯𝘥𝘶𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘺, 𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐨𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐬𝐮𝐠𝐠𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝘔𝘢𝘳𝘬𝘦𝘵-𝘸𝘦𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘵).
Cheers,