๐๐ฎ๐ ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ญ ๐๐, ๐๐๐๐
* ๐๐ก๐ ๐๐๐ ๐ญ๐ซ๐๐๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ซ๐๐ง๐ ๐:ย ๐,๐๐๐๐ฉ๐ญ – ๐,๐๐๐๐ฉ๐ญ( ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ ๐๐ฅ๐จ๐ฌ๐: ๐,๐๐๐๐ฉ๐ญ)
* ๐๐๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐๐ญ๐ซ๐๐๐ญ ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐ฆ๐ข๐ฑ๐๐ ๐ฐ๐ข๐ญ๐ก ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ฐ๐ง ๐ฆ๐จ๐๐๐ซ๐๐ญ๐๐ฅ๐ฒ
* ๐๐ก๐ ๐๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐ฑ๐ฉ๐๐๐ญ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ฑ๐ญ๐๐ง๐ ๐ ๐๐ข๐ง ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐๐๐ฉ๐ฉ๐๐ ๐๐ฒ ๐ฉ๐ซ๐จ๐๐ข๐ญ – ๐ญ๐๐ค๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ฌ
Morning,
The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) today (19/8) is expected to hover between ย 5,200pt โ 5,400pt to be in profit-taking mode but supported by stable USDIDR and oil close. At the other end, the central bank Bank Indonesia end of monthly meeting release today is expected to provide support.ย Market participants expects the reference rate of BI7DRRR to be held unchanged at 4%.
As new cases of COVID-19 consistently rising in the capital city, Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan was quoted in the news to consider to re-implement the limited lock-down as was the case in early March. Current transition of limited lock-down will end on August 27, until when the regional government will monitor the COVID-19 ย spreading condition.ย Latest data on 3-weeks positivity rate in Jakarta was 8.9%, much higher than that of previously and of international threshold of 5%.
Decision for the capital city Jakarta to return to the previous limited lock-down mode (whereby businesses is prohibited to operate vs. currently permitted at 50% of capacity) ย will cause a hiccup to the current trend of the Jakarta stock market, in our view.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ข๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฆ๐๐ซ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ
๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐๐๐ง๐๐๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ย ๐ฉ๐๐ง๐๐๐ฆ๐ข๐ – ๐๐๐๐ฉ๐ญ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ฒ’๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ซ๐๐๐ ๐ฉ๐ซ๐จ๐๐ข๐ฅ๐
Indonesia Julyโs trade figure came out with a net surplus of USD3.3bn , the highest since February ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย and bringing total surplus to USD8.8bn in the period of seven months until July this year (7M20) vs. a deficit during January 2019-July 2019 (7M19) of USD2.2bn , and vs. a total deficits of USD3.6bn last year.
7M20 surplus of non-oil & gas trade increased by 271% to USD12.6bn as compared to USD3.4bn in 7M19. ย Meanwhile, deficits of oil & gas trade declined by 31% to reach USD3.8bn in 7M20 as compared to a deficit of USD5.5bn in 7M19.
In July 2020, 5 (five) biggest contributors to the monthly ย increase of non โoil & gas exports value include those of Gold, Jewelry and Pearl of USD452.7mn (July 2019:none), Fat and Vegetable Oils of USD247.9mn (July 2019: none), Vehicles and spare-parts of USD 144.3mn (July 2019: USD302.2mn), Iron & Steels of USD134.3mn (July 2019: none), ย Machineries / equipment of USD96.0mn (July 2019: USD221.2mn).
With non-oil export contributed to around 95% of total export , the above of July export movement was in-line with the slowing economic growth of main exporting countries that is China, Japan, and the United States.
At the other end, in July 2020, 5 (five) biggest contributor to the monthly decrease of non-oil & gas imports value include those of Cereals of USD77mn (2019:USD36.8mn), Milk, Butter & Eggs of USD91.8mn (July 2019: USD9.7mn), Vegetables of USD102.1mn (July 2019: none), Sugar & Candies of USD120.7mn (July 2019: none), Vehicles and spare-parts of USD157.9mn (July 2019: USD15.8mn). Furthermore, import of consumptions goods declined by 24.1% YoY as compared to July 2019 , while import Raw Materials declined by 34.5% YoY ย and Capital Goods by 29.3% YoY.
The above movement of import trade value was also consistent with the pandemic-related shift of activities pattern, in our note, whereby non-essential goods import decreased in a higher rates.
As higher surplus brings in more foreign exchange that eventually create appreciation to the local currency IDR, trade profile during the pandemic context may provide a better base for sustainably better trade profile, in the future, in our note.
Meanwhile yesterday (18/8) in Wall Streetย the ย DJIA ย ended lower by ย 67 points or 0.2% ย at 27,778pt , while the S&P500 and the Nasdaq both closed higher by 0.2% and 0.7%, respectively.
At the other end, yesterday ย the WTI price closed unchanged at USD42.9/barrel as traders were awaiting the weekly data of the US inventory level. Meanwhile the ย USDIDR ย closed ย at IDR14.907 ย vs. IDR14.917 the previous one.
We advise the following recommendations, for both trading and longer-time investment purpose. ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐ (๐ฌ๐๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ ๐จ๐ ๐๐จ๐ณ๐ช, ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐จ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ ๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ฏ๐ฅ๐ฆ๐ณ๐ธ๐ฆ๐ช๐จ๐ฉ๐ต ), ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐ (๐ฌ๐๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฐ๐ข๐ญ ๐๐ช๐ฏ๐ช๐ฏ๐จ, ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐จ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ ๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ข๐ณ๐ฌ๐ฆ๐ต-๐ธ๐ฆ๐ช๐จ๐ฉ๐ต), ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐ (๐ฌ๐๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฐ๐ฏ๐ด๐ถ๐ฎ๐ฆ๐ณ, ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐จ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ ๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ท๐ฆ๐ณ๐ธ๐ฆ๐ช๐จ๐ฉ๐ต ), ๐๐๐๐ (๐ฌ๐๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ถ๐ต๐ฐ๐ฎ๐ข๐ต๐ช๐ท๐ฆ, ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐จ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ ๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ข๐ณ๐ฌ๐ฆ๐ต-๐ธ๐ฆ๐ช๐จ๐ฉ๐ต), ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐ (๐ฌ๐๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ณ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฆ, ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐จ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ ๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ท๐ฆ๐ณ๐ธ๐ฆ๐ช๐จ๐ฉ๐ต),๐๐ง๐ ๐๐๐๐ (๐ฌ๐๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ข๐ด๐ช๐ค ๐๐ฏ๐ฅ๐ถ๐ด๐ต๐ณ๐บ, ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐จ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ ๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ข๐ณ๐ฌ๐ฆ๐ต-๐ธ๐ฆ๐ช๐จ๐ฉ๐ต).
Cheers,