๐๐๐ฉ๐ญ๐๐ฆ๐๐๐ซ ๐๐, ๐๐๐๐
* ๐๐ก๐ ๐๐๐ ๐ญ๐ซ๐๐๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ซ๐๐ง๐ ๐: ๐,๐๐๐๐ฉ๐ญ – ๐,๐๐๐๐ฉ๐ญย (๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ ๐๐ฅ๐จ๐ฌ๐: ๐,๐๐๐๐ฉ๐ญ)
* ๐๐๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐๐ญ๐ซ๐๐๐ญ ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐ ๐๐ง๐๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐ก๐ข๐ ๐ก๐๐ซ ย ๐จ๐งย ๐๐ก๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ซ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ฅ ๐ฌ๐๐ฅ๐๐ฌ ๐๐ฎ๐ ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ญ’๐ฌ ๐๐๐ญ๐ย ๐๐ง๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐ง๐ข๐ญ๐๐ ๐๐ญ๐๐ญ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ฎ๐๐๐๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐๐ฑ ๐๐๐ฉ๐ญ๐๐ฆ๐๐๐ซ’๐ฌ, ๐๐จ๐ญ๐ก ๐ก๐ข๐ ๐ก๐๐ซ-๐ญ๐ก๐๐ง-๐๐ฑ๐ฉ๐๐๐ญ๐๐
* ๐๐ก๐ ๐๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐ฑ๐ฉ๐๐๐ญ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ญ๐ซ๐๐ง๐ ๐ก๐ข๐ ๐ก๐๐ซ ๐จ๐ง ๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐จ๐ง๐ ๐๐ซ ๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ ๐จ๐ข๐ฅ ๐๐ฅ๐จ๐ฌ๐
Morning,
The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) today (16/9) is expected to be within the range of 5,050pt โ 5,185pt, ย to fluctuate but incline higher, on stronger USDIDR and oil close. ย Meanwhile, yesterday (15/9) the DJIA ended flat or higher by 2 points to 27,996pt, while S&P500 and the Nasdaq both closed higher by 0.5% and 1.2%, respectively.
Better-than-expected economic data releases both in the United States (US) and China, coupled with the prospect of the US central bank to maintain loose stance policy during this monthโs FOMC , triggered foreign outflow yesterday (15/9) in the Jakarta stock market, in our note.
Remind in late August, the US central bank announced that it will leave its 2% target inflation rate for some time to allow for higher employment, which is part of the Fed acts to fight COVID19 -related economic down-turn.ย This implies that stock market is more sensitive to better-than-expected data releases, because investors is ย in the time frame to benefit from momentum of both recovery as well as cheap money and ample liquidity.
๐๐ฎ๐ ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ญ’๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ซ๐๐๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ญ๐ซ๐ข๐ ๐ ๐๐ซ๐๐ ๐ฌ๐ญ๐จ๐ง๐ ๐๐ซ ๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐ฅ๐จ๐ฌ๐ ๐ฒ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ, ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ๐
While failing to keep foreign funds outflow from the stock market yesterday, news on Indonesia trade position for the month of August managed to find its impact through higher close of the USDIDR, in our note. Below is the latest international trade position, data being released yesterday by the central statistics office.
In the month of August, the country recorded trade surplus of USD2.3bn, arisen from non-oil & gas surplus of USD2.7bn and a deficit of oil &gas sector of USD0.4bn.ย The latest trade figures brought a total of trade surplus of USD11.1bn during January to August this year (8M20) as compared to a deficit position of USD2.1bn in the same period last year. Lower world oil price and several main commodities have led to lower value of Indonesia import of oil & gas sector. In addition, the use of CPO-based fuels impacted to lower volume. ย Volume of oil & gas import during the 8M20 , representing a decline of 5.1% YoY. Meanwhile, the aggregate ย import price, representing a 33.4% YoY decline during the 8M20.ย General slowing down of the economy this year has slowed down the non-oil-gas import, including that of consumption goods.
Total export during the 8M20 increased by 9.5% YoY, mainly driven by that of the CPO and its derivative products (+11.6% YoY), the largest contributor. At the other end, fuels and minerals recorded a decline of 22% YoY, the second largest.ย The general slowing down of the world economies this year has been generally reflected in the export portrait.
At the other end, yesterday ย the WTI price closed higher by 2.7% ย at USD38.3/barrel as compared to the previous one. Meanwhile the ย USDIDR ย closedย at IDR14.870 ย vs. IDR14.974 the previous one.
We advise the following recommendations, for both trading and longer-time investment purpose. ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐ (๐ฌ๐๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ ๐จ๐ ๐๐จ๐ณ๐ช, ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐จ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ ๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ฏ๐ฅ๐ฆ๐ณ๐ธ๐ฆ๐ช๐จ๐ฉ๐ต ), ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐ (๐ฌ๐๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฐ๐ข๐ญ ๐๐ช๐ฏ๐ช๐ฏ๐จ, ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐จ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ ๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ข๐ณ๐ฌ๐ฆ๐ต-๐ธ๐ฆ๐ช๐จ๐ฉ๐ต), ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐ (๐ฌ๐๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฐ๐ฏ๐ด๐ถ๐ฎ๐ฆ๐ณ, ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐จ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ ๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ท๐ฆ๐ณ๐ธ๐ฆ๐ช๐จ๐ฉ๐ต ), ๐๐๐๐ (๐ฌ๐๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ถ๐ต๐ฐ๐ฎ๐ข๐ต๐ช๐ท๐ฆ, ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐จ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ ๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ข๐ณ๐ฌ๐ฆ๐ต-๐ธ๐ฆ๐ช๐จ๐ฉ๐ต), ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐ (๐ฌ๐๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ณ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฆ, ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐จ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ ๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ท๐ฆ๐ณ๐ธ๐ฆ๐ช๐จ๐ฉ๐ต),๐๐ง๐ ๐๐๐๐ (๐ฌ๐๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ข๐ด๐ช๐ค ๐๐ฏ๐ฅ๐ถ๐ด๐ต๐ณ๐บ, ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐จ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ ๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ข๐ณ๐ฌ๐ฆ๐ต-๐ธ๐ฆ๐ช๐จ๐ฉ๐ต).
Cheers,