๐๐จ๐ฏ๐๐ฆ๐๐๐ซ ๐๐, ๐๐๐๐
* ๐๐ก๐ ๐๐๐ ๐ญ๐ซ๐๐๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ซ๐๐ง๐ ๐: ๐,๐๐๐๐ฉ๐ญ – ๐,๐๐๐๐ฉ๐ญ ( ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ ๐๐ฅ๐จ๐ฌ๐: ๐,๐๐๐๐ฉ๐ญ)
* ๐๐๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐๐๐ซ๐๐๐ญ ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐ก๐ข๐ ๐ก๐๐ซ ๐๐ฒ ๐จ๐ฏ๐๐ซ ๐% ๐จ๐ง ๐๐ง๐จ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ซ ๐จ๐ฉ๐ญ๐ข๐ฆ๐ข๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐ฐ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐๐๐-๐๐ ๐ฏ๐๐๐๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐๐จ๐๐๐ซ๐ง๐ ๐๐ง๐.๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐ฅ๐๐ข๐ฆ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐๐% ๐๐๐๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐
* ๐๐ก๐ ๐๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐ฑ๐ฉ๐๐๐ญ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐ข๐ง๐ฎ๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ ๐๐ข๐ง ๐๐๐ ๐ ๐๐ฅ๐ฌ๐จ ๐จ๐ง ๐ฌ๐ญ๐๐๐ฅ๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ ๐จ๐ข๐ฅ ๐๐ฅ๐จ๐ฌ๐
Morning,
The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) today (11/17) is expected to be in the range of 5,475pt โ 5,600pt, likely to gain edge also by support of stable USDIDR close. ย At the other end, Bank Indonesia is expected to start its monthly Board of Governors meeting tomorrow (11/18) and announce the decision on whether to keep the BI7D-RRR unchanged, at currently 4%, the day after (11/19). The reference rate have been maintained in the last 4 (four) months as USDIDR exchange value as well as the CPI supported the stance. The yield differential with other countries is among major captive factors for foreign inflow into Indonesia financial sector most recently, in our note.
Meanwhile, yesterday (11/16) the DJIA closed higher ย by ย 471 points or 1.6% to 29,950pt, while the ย S&P500 and the Nasdaq both ended higher by 1.2%, and 0.8%, respectively. The DJIA and S&P 500 posted all-time closing highs after Moderna released trial data showing its coronavirus vaccine was more than 94% effective. That marked the second positive announcement following that of ย Pfizer and BioNTech on 11/9 that their Covid-19 vaccine candidate was more than 90% effective among participants in a late-stage trial.
๐๐๐ง๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐ฒ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐๐ญ๐จ๐๐๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ๐ญ๐๐ฅ ๐ญ๐ซ๐๐๐ ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐๐๐๐.๐๐๐ง ๐ฏ๐ฌ. ๐๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ญ ๐จ๐ ๐๐๐๐.๐๐๐ง ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐ฆ๐ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐ข๐จ๐ ๐ฅ๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฒ๐๐๐ซ
During the 10 (ten) months ended October this year, Indonesia recorded a total trade surplus of USD17.07bn as compared to a deficit of USD2.1bn the same period last year.ย The gain has been contributed almost evenly by the falling figure of oil&gas deficits and the increase of surplus from non oil & gas trade. The oil& gas deficit figure was recorded at USD5.2bn to October this year as compared to a deficit of USD8.0bn the same period last year, or representing a 35% YoY decline.ย At the other end, surplus of non oil&gas trade figure pointed an annual increase 287%.
The volume of oil&gas import during Jan-Oct this year was recorded at a decline of 5.1%, while the average ย oil & gas import aggregate price decreased by 31.4% YoY.ย This can be directly pointed into the decline of world oil price of WTI that stood at USD40.1/barrel as compared to USD61.1/barrel in the start of this year, or a decline of 34.4% year-to-date.
With the obligatory use of alternative-fuel of that of CPO-based among others, the country has been succeeded to reduce volume import of refined oil by 12.1% during the period of January to October this year.
Another factor that boosted trade surplus this year is the increase of non oil & gas average aggregate export selling price of 28.9% YoY in October. This can be mainly related to the hike of CPO price this year of 16.7% year-to-date, or of 40% YoY.
Overal, the latest situation of balance of trade figure of the country is expected to weight on more to the psoitive side instead of the negative side to the value of Indonesia economy, in our observe.
At the other end, yesterday ย (11/16) the WTI price closed higher by ย 3.0% at USD41.3/barrel as compared to the previous close, on Moderna Inc.โs vaccine news progress. ย Meanwhile, the USDIDR ย closedย at IDR14.139 ย vs. IDR14.222 the previous one.
We advise the following recommendations, for both trading and longer-time investment purpose. ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐ (๐ฌ๐๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ ๐จ๐ ๐๐จ๐ณ๐ช, ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐จ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ ๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ฏ๐ฅ๐ฆ๐ณ๐ธ๐ฆ๐ช๐จ๐ฉ๐ต ), ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐ (๐ฌ๐๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฐ๐ข๐ญ ๐๐ช๐ฏ๐ช๐ฏ๐จ, ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐จ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ ๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ข๐ณ๐ฌ๐ฆ๐ต-๐ธ๐ฆ๐ช๐จ๐ฉ๐ต), ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐ (๐ฌ๐๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฐ๐ฏ๐ด๐ถ๐ฎ๐ฆ๐ณ, ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐จ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ ๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ท๐ฆ๐ณ๐ธ๐ฆ๐ช๐จ๐ฉ๐ต ), ๐๐๐๐ (๐ฌ๐๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ถ๐ต๐ฐ๐ฎ๐ข๐ต๐ช๐ท๐ฆ, ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐จ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ ๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ข๐ณ๐ฌ๐ฆ๐ต-๐ธ๐ฆ๐ช๐จ๐ฉ๐ต), ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐ (๐ฌ๐๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ณ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฆ, ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐จ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ ๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ท๐ฆ๐ณ๐ธ๐ฆ๐ช๐จ๐ฉ๐ต),๐๐ง๐ ๐๐๐๐ (๐ฌ๐๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ข๐ด๐ช๐ค ๐๐ฏ๐ฅ๐ถ๐ด๐ต๐ณ๐บ, ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐จ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ ๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ข๐ณ๐ฌ๐ฆ๐ต-๐ธ๐ฆ๐ช๐จ๐ฉ๐ต).
Cheers,