๐๐ฎ๐ ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ญ ๐๐, ๐๐๐๐
* ๐๐ก๐ ๐๐๐ ๐ญ๐ซ๐๐๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ซ๐๐ง๐ ๐: ๐,๐๐๐๐ฉ๐ญ – ๐,๐๐๐๐ฉ๐ญ (๐๐ฎ๐๐ฌ๐๐๐ฒ ๐๐ฅ๐จ๐ฌ๐: ๐,๐๐๐๐ฉ๐ญ)
* ๐๐๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐๐ญ๐ซ๐๐๐ญ ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐ฐ๐ข๐ญ๐ก ๐๐ช๐ฎ๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐๐๐ฌ ๐ฅ๐จ๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฆ๐ ๐.๐% ๐๐ญ ๐๐ฅ๐จ๐ฌ๐, ๐ฆ๐๐ข๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐จ๐ง ๐ฅ๐จ๐ฐ๐๐ซ-๐ญ๐ก๐๐ง-๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ฅ ๐ฌ๐๐ฅ๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐ง๐ข๐ญ๐๐ ๐๐ญ๐๐ญ๐๐ฌ (๐๐) ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฆ๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐ก ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ฒ
* ๐๐ก๐ ๐๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐ฑ๐ฉ๐๐๐ญ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐ ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐จ๐ซ๐ญ๐๐ ๐๐ฒ ๐ฌ๐ญ๐๐๐ฅ๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐
Morning,
The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) today (8/18) is expected to trade between 6,025pt – 6,150pt to attempt for higher confidence while being supported by bargain hunters. Meanwhile, yesterday (8/17) Wall Street ended with the DJIA closed lower by 282 points or 0.8% to 35,343pt, while the S&P500 and the Nasdaq both closed lower by 0.7% and 0.9%, ย respectively. The US retail sales data for July fell 1.1% YoY, worse as compared to economistsโ estimate of -0.3% YoY (June: +0.6% YoY). The data added to all factors including peak-valuations and led to pressures.
The JCI today ย is expected to be supported by the release of Indonesia trade data for the month of July (estimated at USD2 -USD2.3bn surplus),scheduled at 11.00 am by the central statistics office (Badan Pusat Statistik). During January โ June 2021, trade surplus amounted to USD11.9bn vs. USD5.4bn during January โ June 2020. In addition, second-lowest historic record of Positivity Rates (PR) in the Jakarta city, at 5.6% (8/16) may lend support to the JCI.
Monday, the JCI was trading some 50 points off ย our and consensusโ estimate for the intra-day low which we link to a degree of uncertanties in the domestic scape. Monday saw the government submition of budget proposal for the next year, with the GDP growth is estimated at 5.2% – 5.8% YoY, not to have factored-in the urgent lock-down since July 3 into August 23. Meanwhile.budget deficits in 2022 is estimated 4.85% (2021E: 5.7% of total GDP).
At the other end, yesterday the WTI price closed lower by 0.6% to USD66.9/barrel , mainly as Julyโs data of China daily crude-processing rate fell to its lowest since May 2020. The data heightened demand worries along with the new COVID-19 spread in China and in other countries. ย ย ย ย ย Meanwhile, the USDIDR ย closed ย at IDR14,383 ย vs. IDR14,388 the previous one.
We advise the following recommendations, for both trading and longer-time investment purpose. ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐ (๐ฌ๐๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ ๐จ๐ ๐๐จ๐ณ๐ช, ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐จ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ ๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ฏ๐ฅ๐ฆ๐ณ๐ธ๐ฆ๐ช๐จ๐ฉ๐ต ), ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐ (๐ฌ๐๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฐ๐ข๐ญ ๐๐ช๐ฏ๐ช๐ฏ๐จ, ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐จ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ ๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ข๐ณ๐ฌ๐ฆ๐ต-๐ธ๐ฆ๐ช๐จ๐ฉ๐ต), ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐ (๐ฌ๐๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฐ๐ฏ๐ด๐ถ๐ฎ๐ฆ๐ณ, ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐จ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ ๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ท๐ฆ๐ณ๐ธ๐ฆ๐ช๐จ๐ฉ๐ต ), ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐,๐๐๐๐ (๐ฌ๐๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ณ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฆ, ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐จ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ ๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ท๐ฆ๐ณ๐ธ๐ฆ๐ช๐จ๐ฉ๐ต),๐๐ง๐ ๐๐๐๐ (๐ฌ๐๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ข๐ด๐ช๐ค ๐๐ฏ๐ฅ๐ถ๐ด๐ต๐ณ๐บ, ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐จ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ ๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ข๐ณ๐ฌ๐ฆ๐ต-๐ธ๐ฆ๐ช๐จ๐ฉ๐ต).
Cheers,