July 20, 2020

Jᴜʟʏ 20, 2020

* Tʜᴇ JCI ᴛʀᴀᴅɪɴɢ ʀᴀɴɢᴇ : 5,050ᴘᴛ – 5,150ᴘᴛ ( Fʀɪᴅᴀʏ ᴄʟᴏsᴇ:  5,080ᴘᴛ )

* Wᴀʟʟ Sᴛʀᴇᴇᴛ ᴄʟᴏsᴇᴅ ᴜɴᴄʜᴀɴɢᴇᴅ ᴇxᴛᴇɴᴅᴇᴅ ᴘʀᴇᴠɪᴏᴜs ᴄᴏɴsᴏʟɪᴅᴀᴛɪᴏɴ

* Tʜᴇ JCI ɪs ᴇxᴘᴇᴄᴛᴇᴅ ᴛᴏ ᴛʀᴀᴅᴇ sɪᴅᴇᴡᴀʏs, ʙᴜᴛ sᴜᴘᴘᴏʀᴛᴇᴅ ʙʏ sᴛᴀʙʟᴇ USDIDR ᴀɴᴅ ᴏɪʟ ᴄʟᴏsᴇ

Morning,

The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) today (20/7) is expected to be in the range of 5,050pt – 5,150pt to fluctuate but supported by lower BI7DRRR and stable USDIDR.   Meanwhile, Friday last week(17/7) in Wall Street  the  DJIA  ended lower by 63 points or 0.2%  at 26,672pt,  while the S&P500 and the Nasdaq both gained by  0.3%.

𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐨𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐢𝐚 𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐮𝐦𝐞𝐫 𝐒𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫

𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐨𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐢𝐚 𝐛𝐞𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐰𝐨𝐫𝐥𝐝-𝐥𝐚𝐫𝐠𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐂𝐏𝐎 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐝𝐮𝐜𝐞𝐫 𝐜𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐬 𝐚𝐧 𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐯𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐮𝐦𝐞𝐫𝐬’ 𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐟𝐞𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞, 𝐰𝐞 𝐚𝐬𝐬𝐮𝐦𝐞

The sight of Indonesia “heavy-snacks” in our term or “Gorengan” in local language which is basically fried foods that made-up of raw ingredients such as cassava, tofu, fermented soybean (tempe), mixture of flour and vegetables (bakwan), and others have triggered our lingering questions over the last years. We had presumed “Gorengan” somehow to be the most most popular snacks in the country as one can find the evidence from the time of especially during fasting months whereby all products in the stalls within home and offices areas,  are sold out just around 30 minutes before the breakfasting time at around 6 (six) in the evening.

Based on the latest (September 2019) consumers’ spending consumption national survey, out of total spending consumptions in the amount of IDR1,205,862, consumers in urban areas used some 49% for food or around IDR593,450 per capita. According to the findings, food consumptions spending allocations for consumers in urban areas to include Prepared foods and drinks (40.0%), cigarettes and tobacco (10.4%), Cereals (9.1%), fish/shrimps/squid/shells (7.2%), vegetables (6.7%), and Others (26.6%).

Deducing from the above finding, we came , at least to 3 (three) supporting findings, as follows. 1) Out of total spending of weekly per capita in urban areas for Prepared Foods and Beverages of IDR61,685, Fried foods came in at IDR2,875 or representing the fourth highest spending after “Nasi Campur” of IDR10,425, and “Mie Bakso” of IDR5,488 and prepared drinks (coffee, latte, tea, milk) of IDR3,130.

2) tofu and tempe made of 93% of total weekly per capita spending of total IDR2,875 of Beans and Nuts food category, wheras cassavas made up of 39% of total spendings from Tubers of IDR1,315. At the other end, frying oil made up 83% of total weekly per capita spending of consumers in urban areas of IDR3,097.

3) Based on the September 2019 survey, foods consumption weekly spending per capita in urban areas of total IDR61,685 were dominated by Cereals of mostly rice (IDR13,991), Fish/shrimps (IDR11,095), Eggs and milks (IDR9,535), Vegetables (IDR10,271).

The above findings, by the minimum, support our presumption that fried food or “Gorengan” is by and large the favorite snack of most Indonesian consumers. As for the reason behind the above trait, we preliminary associate this pattern with the fact that Indonesia being the largest CPO producer in the world.

At the other end, yesterday  the WTI price closed at USD40.6/barrel vs. USD40.8 the previous one. Meanwhile the  USDIDR  closed  at IDR14.780  vs. IDR14.632 the previous one.

We advise the following recommendation as for now, for both trading and longer-time investment purpose. 𝐀𝐀𝐋𝐈, 𝐋𝐒𝐈𝐏 (𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫 𝐨𝐟 𝘈𝘨𝘳𝘪, 𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐨𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐬𝐮𝐠𝐠𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝘜𝘯𝘥𝘦𝘳𝘸𝘦𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘵 ), 𝐔𝐍𝐓𝐑, 𝐈𝐓𝐌𝐆, 𝐀𝐃𝐑𝐎, 𝐏𝐓𝐁𝐀 (𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫 𝐨𝐟 𝘊𝘰𝘢𝘭 𝘔𝘪𝘯𝘪𝘯𝘨, 𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐨𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐬𝐮𝐠𝐠𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝘔𝘢𝘳𝘬𝘦𝘵-𝘸𝘦𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘵), 𝐆𝐆𝐑𝐌, 𝐔𝐍𝐕𝐑, 𝐈𝐂𝐁𝐏 (𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫 𝐨𝐟 𝘊𝘰𝘯𝘴𝘶𝘮𝘦𝘳, 𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐨𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐬𝐮𝐠𝐠𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝘖𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘸𝘦𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘵 ), 𝐀𝐒𝐈𝐈 (𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫 𝐨𝐟 𝘈𝘶𝘵𝘰𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘷𝘦, 𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐨𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐬𝐮𝐠𝐠𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝘔𝘢𝘳𝘬𝘦𝘵-𝘸𝘦𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘵), 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐀𝐂𝐄𝐒, 𝐒𝐂𝐌𝐀, 𝐌𝐀𝐏𝐈 (𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫 𝐨𝐟 𝘛𝘳𝘢𝘥𝘦, 𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐨𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐬𝐮𝐠𝐠𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝘖𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘸𝘦𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘵),𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐓𝐊𝐈𝐌 (𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫 𝐨𝐟 𝘉𝘢𝘴𝘪𝘤 𝘐𝘯𝘥𝘶𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘺, 𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐨𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐬𝐮𝐠𝐠𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝘔𝘢𝘳𝘬𝘦𝘵-𝘸𝘦𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘵).

Cheers,