๐๐๐ฉ๐ญ๐๐ฆ๐๐๐ซ ๐๐, ๐๐๐๐
* ๐๐ก๐ ๐๐๐ ๐ญ๐ซ๐๐๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ซ๐๐ง๐ ๐: ๐,๐๐๐๐ฉ๐ญ – ๐,๐๐๐๐ฉ๐ญย (๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ ๐๐ฅ๐จ๐ฌ๐: ๐,๐๐๐๐ฉ๐ญ)
* ๐๐๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐๐ญ๐ซ๐๐๐ญ ๐๐ฅ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ก๐ข๐ ๐ก๐๐ซ ๐๐ฒ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฆ๐ ๐% ๐จ๐ง ๐ญ๐๐๐ก ๐ฌ๐ก๐๐ซ๐๐ฌ’ ๐ซ๐๐ฏ๐๐ซ๐ฌ๐๐ฅ
* ๐๐ก๐ ๐๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐ฑ๐ฉ๐๐๐ญ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ฅ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ก๐ข๐ ๐ก๐๐ซ ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ซ๐ ๐๐ข๐ง ๐ก๐ฎ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ซ๐ฌ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ก๐ข๐ ๐ก๐๐ซ ๐จ๐ข๐ฅ ๐๐ฅ๐จ๐ฌ๐
Morning,
The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) today (10/9) is expected to be within the range of 5,100pt โ 5,225pt, to fluctuate but incline higher on bargain hunters. Meanwhile, yesterday (9/9) the DJIA ended higher by 440 points or 1.6%, while S&P500 and the Nasdaq both closed higher by 2.0% and 2.7%, respectively, mostly on technological share prices rebound.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ข๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฆ๐๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ
๐ข๐ฌ ๐ฅ๐จ๐จ๐ค๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ง-๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ฅ๐๐ญ ๐๐๐จ๐ง๐จ๐ฆ๐ข๐ ๐ ๐ซ๐จ๐ฐ๐ญ๐ก ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ฒ๐๐๐ซ
The government has revised down, the latest on mid-August, economic growth this year to the range of -1.1% YoY to +0.2% YoY, on a worst-to-best scenarios, respectively, from previously minus 0.4% YoY to +2.3% YoY. At the same time, Asian Development Bank, IMF, and OECD did similarly, to -1% YoY (previously +2.5% YoY), IMF to -0.3% YoY (previously +0.5% YoY), and OECD of -2.8% YoY to -3.9% YoY.
Most worst-case scenario assumed improving contractions in the 2H ย this year, while best-case scenario assumed thin growths to in the 3Q and 4Q.ย All assumed a gradual loosening (started on June 15 in Jakarta )of limited lock-down (PSSB or Pembatasan Sosial Skala Besar) observed in early March in the capital city Jakarta and later on followed by major cities in Indonesia.
To remind Indonesia GDP growth during the 2Q20 was -5.32% YoY , 4.19% QoQ, while during the 1H20 a contraction of 1.26% YoY.
๐๐ข๐ฆ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ ๐ฅ๐จ๐๐ค-๐๐จ๐ฐ๐ง ๐ซ๐-๐ญ๐ข๐ ๐ก๐ญ๐๐ง ๐๐๐๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐ ๐๐๐ฉ๐ญ๐๐ฆ๐๐๐ซ ๐๐, ๐ข๐ง ๐๐๐ค๐๐ซ๐ญ๐ ๐๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ
With the latest decision of the head of Jakarta provincial government Anies Baswedan to re-implement full lock-down as observed in early March, domestic economic growth scenarios mayย change, but not limited to a worse option, in our view.
The above preview is based on the following points.
1) Remind that Indonesia is a low-base consumption driven economy. This would limit downside risk on consumptions and in turn the economy.
2) Other cities in Indonesia are likely to follow similar policy. This is expected to result in a better control of COVID-19 spread in the country, which eventually expected to create better outlook to attract investments.
3) Shift of economic production factors, such as labors and capital, have gradually occurred ย during the 2Q this year, in our note. Several sectors such as Water Procurement, Waste Management, Waste and Recycle, Information Communication, Agriculture, Forestry, and Fishery, recorded growth both on annual and quarterly basis (please see Review on 2Q20 GDP ,August 6 ).ย Other sectors such as Education, Financial and Insurance, posted annual growth during the 2Q20 but not on quarterly basis.
At the other end, Indonesia has a relatively low debt-to-income ratio both in the state and household level, very strong presence of micro, small, and medium enterprises in both formal and informal nature.ย These are expected to facilitate the reshaping of supply and demand of goods and services during the pandemic period and thus facilitate resources shift to support the overall economic growth.
Based on the above arguments, government current estimate of -1.1% YoY to + 0.2% YoY GDP growth this year may hold, and domestic stock market is expected to benefit, in our view.
At the other end, yesterday the WTI price closed with a reversal of 3.5% at USD38.1/barrel as compared to the previous one. Meanwhile the ย USDIDR ย closedย at IDR14.853 ย vs. IDR14.798 the previous one.
We advise the following recommendations, for both trading and longer-time investment purpose. ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐ (๐ฌ๐๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ ๐จ๐ ๐๐จ๐ณ๐ช, ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐จ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ ๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ฏ๐ฅ๐ฆ๐ณ๐ธ๐ฆ๐ช๐จ๐ฉ๐ต ), ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐ (๐ฌ๐๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฐ๐ข๐ญ ๐๐ช๐ฏ๐ช๐ฏ๐จ, ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐จ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ ๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ข๐ณ๐ฌ๐ฆ๐ต-๐ธ๐ฆ๐ช๐จ๐ฉ๐ต), ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐ (๐ฌ๐๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฐ๐ฏ๐ด๐ถ๐ฎ๐ฆ๐ณ, ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐จ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ ๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ท๐ฆ๐ณ๐ธ๐ฆ๐ช๐จ๐ฉ๐ต ), ๐๐๐๐ (๐ฌ๐๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ถ๐ต๐ฐ๐ฎ๐ข๐ต๐ช๐ท๐ฆ, ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐จ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ ๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ข๐ณ๐ฌ๐ฆ๐ต-๐ธ๐ฆ๐ช๐จ๐ฉ๐ต), ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐ (๐ฌ๐๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ณ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฆ, ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐จ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ ๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ท๐ฆ๐ณ๐ธ๐ฆ๐ช๐จ๐ฉ๐ต),๐๐ง๐ ๐๐๐๐ (๐ฌ๐๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ข๐ด๐ช๐ค ๐๐ฏ๐ฅ๐ถ๐ด๐ต๐ณ๐บ, ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐จ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ ๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ข๐ณ๐ฌ๐ฆ๐ต-๐ธ๐ฆ๐ช๐จ๐ฉ๐ต).
Cheers,