๐๐๐ฉ๐ญ๐๐ฆ๐๐๐ซ ๐, ๐๐๐๐
* ๐๐ก๐ ๐๐๐ ๐ญ๐ซ๐๐๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ซ๐๐ง๐ ๐: ๐,๐๐๐๐ฉ๐ญ – ๐,๐๐๐๐ฉ๐ญย (๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ ๐๐ฅ๐จ๐ฌ๐:ย ๐,๐๐๐๐ฉ๐ญ)
* ๐๐๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐๐ญ๐ซ๐๐๐ญ ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐ง๐ ๐๐ ๐๐ฒ ๐๐ฅ๐จ๐ฌ๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐% ๐ฆ๐จ๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ซ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ง ๐๐ฒ ๐จ๐ฏ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ฎ๐ ๐ก๐ญ ๐ญ๐๐๐ก ๐ฌ๐ก๐๐ซ๐๐ฌ
* ๐๐ก๐ ๐๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐ฑ๐ฉ๐๐๐ญ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ฌ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐ฌ ๐๐ฅ๐ฌ๐จ ๐จ๐ง ๐ฐ๐๐๐ค๐๐ซ ๐๐ฅ๐จ๐ฌ๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ ๐จ๐ข๐ฅ
Morning,
The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) today (4/9) is expected to be within the range of 5,125pt โ 5,325pt, to hold selling pressures in the midst of ย less-supporting USDIDR and oil close. Meanwhile, yesterday (3/9) in Wall Streetย theย DJIAย plunged by 808 points or 2.8%ย at 28,293pt , while the S&P500 and the Nasdaq both ย closed lower byย 3.5% and 5.0%, respectively. Sell-offs were driven mainly by overbought techs shares.ย Wall Street were also cautiously waiting for the United States weekly jobless claim , consensus-estimated at below 1mn cases, of 950k units.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ข๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฆ๐๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ
๐๐ฑ๐ฉ๐๐๐ญ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐๐ง๐๐๐ข๐ญ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฏ๐๐ซ๐ฌ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ฅ ๐๐จ๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ซ๐ข๐๐, ๐๐ฒ๐๐ฅ๐ ๐ฐ๐จ๐ซ๐ญ๐ก ๐ซ๐ข๐๐ข๐ง๐ , ๐ฌ๐ญ๐๐ฒ-๐ญ๐ฎ๐ง๐๐, ๐๐๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ญ๐ ๐๐๐
We maintain PTBA in the recommended list of fundamentally sound counter for both trading and longer-time investment purpose, for reasons as follows. 1) a state-owned company and among main providers of energy for the state electricity company ย and thus with strategic bargain power, 2) strong balance sheet with net cash position last March, 3) is in on the process to double production from the current annual 30mn ton to 60mn tonne in 2024 to give investors ample room for pleasant surprise
Under our estimated worst-case scenario, this year, PTBA is expected to record revenue of IDR16.9tr or representing a decline of 22% YoY, leading to aย 30% YoYย lower net profit of IDR2.5tr.ย With this estimates, fair equity value based on PE multipless, came in at IDR2,200 or about similar with yesterday closing price of IDR2,170.
At present, PTBA still aim at a 30.3mn production rate this year, contrast to our worst case profile at 25% lower production rate. Price of worldย of thermal coal was at USD51/tonne yesterday whih was 20% lower last year. W attach a limited down-side coal price risk for less exploration during the pandemic time will lead to lower supply in the immediate foreseen future.
We maintain PTBA in the list of recommended companies for both trading and longer-time investments
At the other end, yesterday the WTI price closed lower by 0.3% at USD41.4/barrel as compared to the previous one.ย Meanwhile the ย USDIDR ย closedย at IDR14.818ย vs. IDR14.804the previous one.
We advise the following recommendations, for both trading and longer-time investment purpose. ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐ (๐ฌ๐๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ ๐จ๐ ๐๐จ๐ณ๐ช, ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐จ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ ๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ฏ๐ฅ๐ฆ๐ณ๐ธ๐ฆ๐ช๐จ๐ฉ๐ต ), ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐ (๐ฌ๐๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฐ๐ข๐ญ ๐๐ช๐ฏ๐ช๐ฏ๐จ, ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐จ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ ๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ข๐ณ๐ฌ๐ฆ๐ต-๐ธ๐ฆ๐ช๐จ๐ฉ๐ต), ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐ (๐ฌ๐๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฐ๐ฏ๐ด๐ถ๐ฎ๐ฆ๐ณ, ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐จ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ ๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ท๐ฆ๐ณ๐ธ๐ฆ๐ช๐จ๐ฉ๐ต ), ๐๐๐๐ (๐ฌ๐๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ถ๐ต๐ฐ๐ฎ๐ข๐ต๐ช๐ท๐ฆ, ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐จ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ ๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ข๐ณ๐ฌ๐ฆ๐ต-๐ธ๐ฆ๐ช๐จ๐ฉ๐ต), ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐ (๐ฌ๐๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ณ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฆ, ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐จ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ ๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ท๐ฆ๐ณ๐ธ๐ฆ๐ช๐จ๐ฉ๐ต),๐๐ง๐ ๐๐๐๐ (๐ฌ๐๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ข๐ด๐ช๐ค ๐๐ฏ๐ฅ๐ถ๐ด๐ต๐ณ๐บ, ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐จ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ ๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ข๐ณ๐ฌ๐ฆ๐ต-๐ธ๐ฆ๐ช๐จ๐ฉ๐ต).
Cheers,