The JCI January 29, 2021

𝐉𝐚𝐧𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐲 𝟐𝟗, 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟏

* 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐉𝐂𝐈 𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐠𝐞:𝟓,𝟗𝟓𝟎𝐩𝐭 – 𝟔,𝟏𝟎𝟎𝐩𝐭 (𝐘𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐝𝐚𝐲 𝐜𝐥𝐨𝐬𝐞: 𝟓,𝟗𝟕𝟗𝐩𝐭)

* 𝐖𝐚𝐥𝐥 𝐒𝐭𝐫𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐫𝐞𝐛𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 , 𝐦𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐨𝐧 𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐃𝐢𝐬𝐧𝐞𝐲, 𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐥 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐀𝐦𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐧 𝐄𝐱𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐬, 𝐬𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐔𝐧𝐢𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐬 (𝐔𝐒) 𝐩𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐦𝐢𝐜-𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐜𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐬

* 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐉𝐂𝐈 𝐢𝐬 𝐞𝐱𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐟𝐥𝐮𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐚𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐦𝐩𝐭 𝐡𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐞𝐫 𝐨𝐧 𝐛𝐚𝐫𝐠𝐚𝐢𝐧 𝐡𝐮𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐬

Morning,

The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) today (1/29) is expected to be in the range of 5,950pt – 6,100pt to attempt, by support of bargain hunters.   Meanwhile, yesterday (1/28)  the DJIA closed higher by 300 points or by 1% to 30,600pt, while the S&P500 and the Nasdaq both ended higher by 1% and 0.5%, respectively.

Against the latest 7-day average of Positivity Rates of daily new COVID-19 of 15.1% in the Jakarta capital city,  slighlty flattening against the averages of 16%-18% the most recent preceeding weeks, climate for turn-around recovery for economy as well as businesses remain. Averaging down for fundamentally sound companies for  trading and longer-term is applicable, in our note.

At the other end, yesterday the WTI price closed lower by 1.0% to USD52.3/barrel as compared  to the previous close, mainly on  fresh travel curbs in the United States. Meanwhile, the USDIDR  closed  at IDR14,119  vs. IDR14,091 the previous one.

We advise the following recommendations, for both trading and longer-time investment purpose. 𝐀𝐀𝐋𝐈, 𝐋𝐒𝐈𝐏 (𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫 𝐨𝐟 𝘈𝘨𝘳𝘪, 𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐨𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐬𝐮𝐠𝐠𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝘜𝘯𝘥𝘦𝘳𝘸𝘦𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘵 ), 𝐔𝐍𝐓𝐑, 𝐈𝐓𝐌𝐆, 𝐀𝐃𝐑𝐎, 𝐏𝐓𝐁𝐀 (𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫 𝐨𝐟 𝘊𝘰𝘢𝘭 𝘔𝘪𝘯𝘪𝘯𝘨, 𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐨𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐬𝐮𝐠𝐠𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝘔𝘢𝘳𝘬𝘦𝘵-𝘸𝘦𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘵), 𝐒𝐈𝐃𝐎, 𝐔𝐋𝐓𝐉, 𝐔𝐍𝐕𝐑, 𝐈𝐂𝐁𝐏 (𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫 𝐨𝐟 𝘊𝘰𝘯𝘴𝘶𝘮𝘦𝘳, 𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐨𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐬𝐮𝐠𝐠𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝘖𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘸𝘦𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘵 ), 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐀𝐂𝐄𝐒, 𝐒𝐂𝐌𝐀, 𝐌𝐀𝐏𝐈,𝐌𝐍𝐂𝐍 (𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫 𝐨𝐟 𝘛𝘳𝘢𝘥𝘦, 𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐨𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐬𝐮𝐠𝐠𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝘖𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘸𝘦𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘵),𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐓𝐊𝐈𝐌 (𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫 𝐨𝐟 𝘉𝘢𝘴𝘪𝘤 𝘐𝘯𝘥𝘶𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘺, 𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐨𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐬𝐮𝐠𝐠𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝘔𝘢𝘳𝘬𝘦𝘵-𝘸𝘦𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘵).

Cheers,

𝐉𝐚𝐧𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐲 𝟏𝟗, 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟏

* 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐉𝐂𝐈 𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐠𝐞: 𝟔,𝟑𝟎𝟎𝐩𝐭 – 𝟔,𝟒𝟐𝟓𝐩𝐭 ( 𝐘𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐝𝐚𝐲 𝐜𝐥𝐨𝐬𝐞: 𝟔,𝟑𝟗𝟎𝐩𝐭 )

* 𝐖𝐚𝐥𝐥 𝐒𝐭𝐫𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐰𝐚𝐬 𝐜𝐥𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐩𝐮𝐛𝐥𝐢𝐜 𝐡𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐝𝐚𝐲

* 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐉𝐂𝐈 𝐢𝐬 𝐞𝐱𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐥𝐮𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐛𝐞 𝐬𝐮𝐩𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐛𝐲 𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐔𝐒𝐃𝐈𝐃𝐑 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐨𝐢𝐥 𝐜𝐥𝐨𝐬𝐞

Morning,

The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) today (1/19) is expected to be in the range of 6,300pt – 6,425pt, likely to consolidate, in-line with regional mood.

𝐑𝐞𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤 𝐨𝐧 𝐲𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐝𝐚𝐲’𝐬 𝐉𝐂𝐈 𝐜𝐥𝐨𝐬𝐞

The JCI reached an  intra-day low of 6,316pt yesterday, or  by -0.9% against the previous close ( 6,373pt) and at the intra-day high of 6,428pt, or by 0.8% against the previous close. In terms of daily magnitude of -0.9% to 0.8%, the JCI was trading within the historical usual range.

Nevertheless, stakeholders for Indonesia stock market may be precautious in the context of trading, for extreme hiccups  on the following possible triggers.

• Reading on the average of daily Positivity Rates (PR) for the last 7 days (week-ended 1/17) in the capital city Jakarta gives an alarming sense. The average figure pointed to 18.2% , representing an increase from the preceeding week of 15.7%, way off the most recent historical range of 11% – 13%.
• Total net buy of foreign investors year-to-date amounted to IDR10.4tr or representing 21.1% of the 2019 total net-buy figure of IDR49.2tr. This implies again of higher volatility should major other countries reverse current easy monetary policies.

However, Indonesia economy is expected to thread COVID-19 pandemic climate in a relatively better form as compared to other countries for the below factors, to name a few.

• Informal economies in the country has yet to be close-to-accurately calculated in the official GDP figure, we suspect, that implies private consumptions amount may be underestimated.
• Also, by the same argument, Gini Ratio index of the latest at 0.38pt may be overestimated, which implies a degree of difficulties to exactly pinpoint the negative impact of current COVID-19 pandemic crises to general private consumption.
• The country economy is very sensitive to the upsurge of commodities price

All in all, cautious optimistic approach should still be the current approach to the domestic stock market investment for both shorter and longer time horizon

At the other end, yesterday  the WTI price closed lower by 0.4% to USD52.2/barrel as compared  to the previous close USD52.4/barrel, off its 11-month high last week. Meanwhile, the USDIDR  closed  at IDR14,080  vs. IDR14,068 the previous one.

We advise the following recommendations, for both trading and longer-time investment purpose. 𝐀𝐀𝐋𝐈, 𝐋𝐒𝐈𝐏 (𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫 𝐨𝐟 𝘈𝘨𝘳𝘪, 𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐨𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐬𝐮𝐠𝐠𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝘜𝘯𝘥𝘦𝘳𝘸𝘦𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘵 ), 𝐔𝐍𝐓𝐑, 𝐈𝐓𝐌𝐆, 𝐀𝐃𝐑𝐎, 𝐏𝐓𝐁𝐀 (𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫 𝐨𝐟 𝘊𝘰𝘢𝘭 𝘔𝘪𝘯𝘪𝘯𝘨, 𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐨𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐬𝐮𝐠𝐠𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝘔𝘢𝘳𝘬𝘦𝘵-𝘸𝘦𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘵), 𝐒𝐈𝐃𝐎, 𝐔𝐋𝐓𝐉, 𝐔𝐍𝐕𝐑, 𝐈𝐂𝐁𝐏 (𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫 𝐨𝐟 𝘊𝘰𝘯𝘴𝘶𝘮𝘦𝘳, 𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐨𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐬𝐮𝐠𝐠𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝘖𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘸𝘦𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘵 ), 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐀𝐂𝐄𝐒, 𝐒𝐂𝐌𝐀, 𝐌𝐀𝐏𝐈,𝐌𝐍𝐂𝐍 (𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫 𝐨𝐟 𝘛𝘳𝘢𝘥𝘦, 𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐨𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐬𝐮𝐠𝐠𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝘖𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘸𝘦𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘵),𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐓𝐊𝐈𝐌 (𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫 𝐨𝐟 𝘉𝘢𝘴𝘪𝘤 𝘐𝘯𝘥𝘶𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘺, 𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐨𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐬𝐮𝐠𝐠𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝘔𝘢𝘳𝘬𝘦𝘵-𝘸𝘦𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘵).

Cheers,