The JCI September 14, 2020

𝐒𝐞𝐩𝐭𝐞𝐦𝐛𝐞𝐫 𝟏𝟒, 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟎

* 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐉𝐂𝐈 𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐠𝐞: 𝟒,𝟗𝟕𝟓𝐩𝐭 – 𝟓,𝟎𝟕𝟓𝐩𝐭 (𝐅𝐫𝐢𝐝𝐚𝐲 𝐜𝐥𝐨𝐬𝐞: 𝟓,𝟎𝟏𝟕𝐩𝐭)

* 𝐖𝐚𝐥𝐥 𝐒𝐭𝐫𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐜𝐥𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐡𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐞𝐫 𝐨𝐧 𝐭𝐞𝐜𝐡 𝐬𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐞𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐛𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐝

* 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐉𝐂𝐈 𝐢𝐬 𝐞𝐱𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐟𝐥𝐮𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐞 𝐡𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐞𝐫 𝐛𝐲 𝐬𝐮𝐩𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭 𝐨𝐟 𝐛𝐚𝐫𝐠𝐚𝐢𝐧 𝐡𝐮𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐬

Morning,

The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) today (14/9) is expected to be within the range of 4,975pt – 5,075pt,  to fluctuate but incline higher, cautiously factoring in this week’s positive news. Meanwhile, Friday last week (11/9) the DJIA ended higher by 131 points or 0.5% to 27,666pt, while S&P500 and the Nasdaq higher and lower by 0.1% and 0.6%, respectively.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐉𝐂𝐈 𝐟𝐚𝐜𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐮𝐧𝐜𝐞𝐫𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐲 𝐨𝐟 𝐏𝐒𝐁𝐁

The foreign outflow which were linked to the re-tightening of the Jakarta capital city large-scale social distancing (PSBB) measure, starting today September 14, is expected to diminish, in our note, for the following points

1. Indonesia trade position during January – July 2020 of total surplus of USD8.7bn vs. deficit of USD2.2bn in the same period last year is a fundamental sweetener to attract foreign re-inflow this week within the data release time tomorrow (𝟏𝟓/𝟗).

2. Should Bank Indonesia hold the reference BI7D-RRR this week (𝟏𝟕/𝟗)), yield differential with other countries such as the United States, Japan, UK, and EU, is expected to remain attractive to induce reflowing of foreign funds to the stock market.

3. The following news in the media during the weekend, has not been factored in to the stock market, we view. Current PSBB allows 25% – 50% capacity for public services and private corporation to operate, to include public and on-line transportation, traditional markets and malls, unlike the previous one.

At the other end, Friday last week  the WTI price closed flat at USD37.3/barrel as compared to the previous one. Meanwhile the  USDIDR  closed  at IDR14.979  vs. IDR14.871 the previous one.

We advise the following recommendations, for both trading and longer-time investment purpose. 𝐀𝐀𝐋𝐈, 𝐋𝐒𝐈𝐏 (𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫 𝐨𝐟 𝘈𝘨𝘳𝘪, 𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐨𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐬𝐮𝐠𝐠𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝘜𝘯𝘥𝘦𝘳𝘸𝘦𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘵 ), 𝐔𝐍𝐓𝐑, 𝐈𝐓𝐌𝐆, 𝐀𝐃𝐑𝐎, 𝐏𝐓𝐁𝐀 (𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫 𝐨𝐟 𝘊𝘰𝘢𝘭 𝘔𝘪𝘯𝘪𝘯𝘨, 𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐨𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐬𝐮𝐠𝐠𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝘔𝘢𝘳𝘬𝘦𝘵-𝘸𝘦𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘵), 𝐆𝐆𝐑𝐌, 𝐔𝐍𝐕𝐑, 𝐈𝐂𝐁𝐏 (𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫 𝐨𝐟 𝘊𝘰𝘯𝘴𝘶𝘮𝘦𝘳, 𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐨𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐬𝐮𝐠𝐠𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝘖𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘸𝘦𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘵 ), 𝐀𝐒𝐈𝐈 (𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫 𝐨𝐟 𝘈𝘶𝘵𝘰𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘷𝘦, 𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐨𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐬𝐮𝐠𝐠𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝘔𝘢𝘳𝘬𝘦𝘵-𝘸𝘦𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘵), 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐀𝐂𝐄𝐒, 𝐒𝐂𝐌𝐀, 𝐌𝐀𝐏𝐈 (𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫 𝐨𝐟 𝘛𝘳𝘢𝘥𝘦, 𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐨𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐬𝐮𝐠𝐠𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝘖𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘸𝘦𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘵),𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐓𝐊𝐈𝐌 (𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫 𝐨𝐟 𝘉𝘢𝘴𝘪𝘤 𝘐𝘯𝘥𝘶𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘺, 𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐨𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐬𝐮𝐠𝐠𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝘔𝘢𝘳𝘬𝘦𝘵-𝘸𝘦𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘵).

Cheers,