The JCI September 22, 2020
๐๐๐ฉ๐ญ๐๐ฆ๐๐๐ซ ๐๐, ๐๐๐๐
* ๐๐ก๐ ๐๐๐ ๐ญ๐ซ๐๐๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ซ๐๐ง๐ ๐: ๐,๐๐๐๐ฉ๐ญ- ๐,๐๐๐๐ฉ๐ญ (๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ ๐๐ฅ๐จ๐ฌ๐: ๐,๐๐๐๐ฉ๐ญ)
* ๐๐๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐๐ญ๐ซ๐๐๐ญ ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐ฅ๐จ๐ฐ๐๐ซ ๐๐ฒ ๐จ๐ฏ๐๐ซ ๐% ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐๐ซ ๐จ๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐ข๐ง๐ฎ๐๐ ๐ ๐ฅ๐จ๐๐๐ฅ ๐ฌ๐ฅ๐จ๐ฐ ๐๐จ๐ฐ๐ง
* ๐๐ก๐ ๐๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐ฑ๐ฉ๐๐๐ญ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ ๐ฆ๐๐ข๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง ๐ซ๐๐ ๐ณ๐จ๐ง๐, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ฌ๐ญ๐๐๐ฅ๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐จ๐ซ๐ญ๐ฌ
Morning,
The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) today (22/9) is expected to be within the range of 4,925pt โ 5,100pt, ย to fluctuate to hold selling pressures, and mainly supported by stable domestic banking system. ย ย Meanwhile, yesterday (21/9) the DJIA ended lower ย by ย 510 points or 1.8% to 27,148pt, while S&P500 and the Nasdaq both closed lower by 1.2% and 0.1%, respectively.
๐ ๐จ๐ซ๐๐ข๐ ๐ง ๐จ๐ฎ๐ญ๐๐ฅ๐จ๐ฐ ๐ญ๐จ๐ญ๐๐ฅ ๐๐๐๐๐.๐๐ญ๐ซ
Yesterday in the Jakarta stock market sawย foreign outflow of IDR311bn, bringing total total foreign net sell of IDR39.9tr year-to-date (2019: net buy of IDR49.2tr, 2018: net sell IDR50.7tr). ย Meanwhile, the country 3Q20 GDP forecast, presently is consensus-estimated in the range of -2% – 0%, before improving to positive territory in the 4Q20.ย Should this be fulfilled, foreign outflow is expected to be mitigated, in our note.
At the other end, factors that had been factored in during current net outflow are as follows.
- Latest improving economic data from the United States and China. Combination of improving economic data in other major countries and ultra expansive monetary policy make domestic stock market relatively less attractive and drive funds outflow
- The uncomfortable sense of investors over domestic inclination to exploit pandemic climate to issue controversial new or change in law, some without appropriate procedure.
- Daily COVID 19 new cases data both in Indonesia and other countries. World stock market is again in worry for global slowdown as the United Kingdom is about to have another lock-down.
At the other end, yesterday ย the WTI price closed lower by 4.4% ย at USD39.3barrel as compared to the previous one on rising cases of COVID-19 cases in Europe. ย Meanwhile the ย USDIDR ย closedย at IDR14.723 ย vs. IDR14.768 the previous one.
We advise the following recommendations, for both trading and longer-time investment purpose. ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐ (๐ฌ๐๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ ๐จ๐ ๐๐จ๐ณ๐ช, ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐จ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ ๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ฏ๐ฅ๐ฆ๐ณ๐ธ๐ฆ๐ช๐จ๐ฉ๐ต ), ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐ (๐ฌ๐๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฐ๐ข๐ญ ๐๐ช๐ฏ๐ช๐ฏ๐จ, ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐จ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ ๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ข๐ณ๐ฌ๐ฆ๐ต-๐ธ๐ฆ๐ช๐จ๐ฉ๐ต), ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐ (๐ฌ๐๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฐ๐ฏ๐ด๐ถ๐ฎ๐ฆ๐ณ, ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐จ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ ๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ท๐ฆ๐ณ๐ธ๐ฆ๐ช๐จ๐ฉ๐ต ), ๐๐๐๐ (๐ฌ๐๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ถ๐ต๐ฐ๐ฎ๐ข๐ต๐ช๐ท๐ฆ, ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐จ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ ๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ข๐ณ๐ฌ๐ฆ๐ต-๐ธ๐ฆ๐ช๐จ๐ฉ๐ต), ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐ (๐ฌ๐๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ณ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฆ, ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐จ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ ๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ท๐ฆ๐ณ๐ธ๐ฆ๐ช๐จ๐ฉ๐ต),๐๐ง๐ ๐๐๐๐ (๐ฌ๐๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ข๐ด๐ช๐ค ๐๐ฏ๐ฅ๐ถ๐ด๐ต๐ณ๐บ, ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐จ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ ๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ข๐ณ๐ฌ๐ฆ๐ต-๐ธ๐ฆ๐ช๐จ๐ฉ๐ต).
Cheers,