๐๐๐๐๐ฆ๐๐๐ซ ๐๐, ๐๐๐๐
* ๐๐ก๐ ๐๐๐ ๐ญ๐ซ๐๐๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ซ๐๐ง๐ ๐:ย ๐,๐๐๐๐ฉ๐ญ – ๐,๐๐๐๐ฉ๐ญ (๐๐ฎ๐๐ฌ๐๐๐ฒ ๐๐ฅ๐จ๐ฌ๐: ๐,๐๐๐๐ฉ๐ญ)
* ๐๐๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐๐ญ๐ซ๐๐๐ญ ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐ฅ๐จ๐ฐ๐๐ซ ๐๐ฒ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฆ๐ ๐% ๐ฒ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ ๐ฆ๐๐ข๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐จ๐ง ๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐ข๐ง๐ฎ๐๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ ๐ซ๐จ๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ญ๐ก๐จ๐ฌ๐ ๐จ๐ ๐ญ๐๐๐ก๐ง๐จ๐ฅ๐จ๐ ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐๐จ๐ง๐จ๐ฆ๐ข๐-๐ซ๐๐๐จ๐ฏ๐๐ซ๐ฒ ๐จ๐ง๐๐ฌ
* ๐๐ก๐ ๐๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐ฑ๐ฉ๐๐๐ญ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐ ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐จ๐ซ๐ญ๐๐ ๐๐ฒ ๐ฌ๐ญ๐๐๐ฅ๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ ๐จ๐ข๐ฅ ๐๐ฅ๐จ๐ฌ๐
Morning,
The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) today (12/10) is expected to be in the range of 5,885pt โ 6,050pt, also be supported by stable USDIDR and oil close. ย Meanwhile, yesterday ย (12/9), the DJIA closed lower by 105 points or 0.4% to 30,069pt, while the S&P500 and the Nasdaq both ended with loss ofย 0.8% and ย 1.9%, respectively. ย Next year, ย ย as quoted in the media, by the fast-rolling of COVID-19 vaccines into major countries, major investment banks have predicted new highs for the United States (US) equity indices.
๐๐๐ซ๐ง๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ข๐ฉ๐ฅ๐ ๐ฏ๐๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ, ๐ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐ข๐ฌ๐จ๐ง
As of Tuesday (12/8), by the IDX data, the JCI total average trailing PER this year is 10.0 x, while on a market- capitalization weighted average (WA) basis is at 35.7x.ย At the other end, data from news company Refinitiv, as quoted from the media, calls for this yearโs PER Ratio (assumed as non-weighted) of 11.7x (STI Singapore), 14.2x (Shanghaiโs SSE Index), 14.3x (Hang Seng Index), 18.3 (JCI), 18.7 (LQ45), and 25.5x (Nikkei 225). In times of higher unpredictability of earnings, the use of trailing earnings as opposed to that of ย forward estimation one, in terms of PER concern, is most comforting, in our note.
Decision to enter a market or ย a counter should not be based on PER valuation stand-alone. Nevertheless, the figure of WA PER of 35.7x this ย year for the JCI is captivating, given the 600+ listed-companies traded in the IDX.
At the other end, last week the WTI price closed lower by ย 0.2% to USD45.5/barrel, mainly on release data of the US weekly inventories that saw an increase of 15.2mn barrels, far higher than consensus estimate of a drop of 1.4mn barrels. Nevertheless, downside was propped by hope that coronavirus vaccine would fuel a recovery in global oil demand. Meanwhile, the USDIDR ย closedย at IDR14.164 ย vs. IDR14.135 the previous one.
We advise the following recommendations, for both trading and longer-time investment purpose. ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐ (๐ฌ๐๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ ๐จ๐ ๐๐จ๐ณ๐ช, ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐จ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ ๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ฏ๐ฅ๐ฆ๐ณ๐ธ๐ฆ๐ช๐จ๐ฉ๐ต ), ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐ (๐ฌ๐๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฐ๐ข๐ญ ๐๐ช๐ฏ๐ช๐ฏ๐จ, ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐จ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ ๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ข๐ณ๐ฌ๐ฆ๐ต-๐ธ๐ฆ๐ช๐จ๐ฉ๐ต), ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐ (๐ฌ๐๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฐ๐ฏ๐ด๐ถ๐ฎ๐ฆ๐ณ, ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐จ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ ๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ท๐ฆ๐ณ๐ธ๐ฆ๐ช๐จ๐ฉ๐ต ), ๐๐๐๐ (๐ฌ๐๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ถ๐ต๐ฐ๐ฎ๐ข๐ต๐ช๐ท๐ฆ, ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐จ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ ๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ข๐ณ๐ฌ๐ฆ๐ต-๐ธ๐ฆ๐ช๐จ๐ฉ๐ต), ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐ (๐ฌ๐๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ณ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฆ, ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐จ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ ๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ท๐ฆ๐ณ๐ธ๐ฆ๐ช๐จ๐ฉ๐ต),๐๐ง๐ ๐๐๐๐ (๐ฌ๐๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ข๐ด๐ช๐ค ๐๐ฏ๐ฅ๐ถ๐ด๐ต๐ณ๐บ, ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐จ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ ๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ข๐ณ๐ฌ๐ฆ๐ต-๐ธ๐ฆ๐ช๐จ๐ฉ๐ต).
Cheers,