The JCI December 17, 2020
๐๐๐๐๐ฆ๐๐๐ซ ๐๐, ๐๐๐๐
* ๐๐ก๐ ๐๐๐ ๐ญ๐ซ๐๐๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ซ๐๐ง๐ ๐: ๐,๐๐๐๐ฉ๐ญ – ๐,๐๐๐๐ฉ๐ญย (๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ ๐๐ฅ๐จ๐ฌ๐: ๐,๐๐๐๐ฉ๐ญ)
* ๐๐๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐๐ญ๐ซ๐๐๐ญ ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐ฅ๐๐ญ ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐จ๐ซ๐ญ๐๐ ๐๐ฒ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ ๐๐ ๐๐๐๐ข๐ฌ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ญ๐จ ๐ค๐๐๐ฉ ๐ซ๐๐๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ญ๐ ๐ฎ๐ง๐๐ก๐๐ง๐ ๐๐ย ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฆ๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐ก๐ญ๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐ก๐๐ฌ๐
* ๐๐ก๐ ๐๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐ฑ๐ฉ๐๐๐ญ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐ ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐จ๐ซ๐ญ๐๐ ๐๐ฒ ๐ฌ๐ญ๐๐๐ฅ๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ ๐จ๐ข๐ฅ ๐๐ฅ๐จ๐ฌ๐
Morning,
The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) today (12/17) is expected to be in the range of 6,050pt โ 6,200pt, also supported by general regional optimism. ย Meanwhile, yesterday ย (12/16), the DJIA closed lower by 45 points or 0.2% to 30,155pt, while the S&P500 and the Nasdaq both ended higher by 0.2% and 0.5%, respectively. ย The United States (US) equity indices were mainly supported by the Fed chairman Jerome Powell statemenent for the Decemberโs FOMC meeting, on an upward revision economic growth ย this year to a contraction of 2.4% YoY (previously in September -3.7% YoY) and the next year growth of 4.2% YoY (previously 4.0% YoY). ย At the same time the Fed kept the FFR target of 0-0.25% unchanged ย and its monthly bond buying activities of USD120bn.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ซ๐๐๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐๐๐๐-๐๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ฐ ๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฅ๐จ๐ฐ๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฅ๐๐ฏ๐๐ฅ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐๐ฉ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ฎ๐ ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ญ ๐๐๐๐
The central bank Bank Indonesia (BI) monthly board-of-governor meeting is scheduled to announce monetary policy including reference BI7D-RRR rate this afternoon. In its November meeting, BI lowered the rate by 25bp, the 5th time this year to 3.75%, the lowest since August 2016. The lower rate, along with other expansive monetary tools, is one effort to boost credit growth.
The central bank today may decide to cut another 25bp (1) , or kept the rates unchanged (2), both can be favorable to the economy, in our note. ย In the former option, mining and plantation and other recovering sectors would benefit, while in the later one, the financial sector does.
In September, ย Mining and Quarrying (MQ)credit amounted to IDR140.1tr, or representing growth ofย 14.9% YoY, which is higher than that of total credit growth at 0.4% YoY (2019:6.1% YoY, 2018:12.0% YoY). The higher growth of the MQ sector in September is obvious as compared to its Construction counterpart, for example, at 1% YoY, or to Agriculture, Hunting, and Forestry sector at 4.4% YoY.ย Further rate cut may intensify activities in the trending MQ and other recovering sectorsย and eventually boost growth.
At the other end, yesterday ย the WTI price closed higher by ย 0.4% to USD47.8/barrel, on larger-than-estimated weekly drop of the US oil inventories. ย Meanwhile, the USDIDR ย closedย at IDR14.151 ย vs. IDR14.171 ย the previous one.
We advise the following recommendations, for both trading and longer-time investment purpose. ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐ (๐ฌ๐๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ ๐จ๐ ๐๐จ๐ณ๐ช, ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐จ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ ๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ฏ๐ฅ๐ฆ๐ณ๐ธ๐ฆ๐ช๐จ๐ฉ๐ต ), ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐ (๐ฌ๐๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฐ๐ข๐ญ ๐๐ช๐ฏ๐ช๐ฏ๐จ, ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐จ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ ๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ข๐ณ๐ฌ๐ฆ๐ต-๐ธ๐ฆ๐ช๐จ๐ฉ๐ต), ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐ (๐ฌ๐๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฐ๐ฏ๐ด๐ถ๐ฎ๐ฆ๐ณ, ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐จ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ ๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ท๐ฆ๐ณ๐ธ๐ฆ๐ช๐จ๐ฉ๐ต ), ๐๐๐๐ (๐ฌ๐๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ถ๐ต๐ฐ๐ฎ๐ข๐ต๐ช๐ท๐ฆ, ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐จ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ ๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ข๐ณ๐ฌ๐ฆ๐ต-๐ธ๐ฆ๐ช๐จ๐ฉ๐ต), ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐ (๐ฌ๐๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ณ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฆ, ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐จ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ ๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ท๐ฆ๐ณ๐ธ๐ฆ๐ช๐จ๐ฉ๐ต),๐๐ง๐ ๐๐๐๐ (๐ฌ๐๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ข๐ด๐ช๐ค ๐๐ฏ๐ฅ๐ถ๐ด๐ต๐ณ๐บ, ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐จ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ ๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ข๐ณ๐ฌ๐ฆ๐ต-๐ธ๐ฆ๐ช๐จ๐ฉ๐ต).
Cheers,