๐๐๐ง๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐ฒ ๐๐, ๐๐๐๐
* ๐๐ก๐ ๐๐๐ ๐ญ๐ซ๐๐๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ซ๐๐ง๐ ๐: ๐,๐๐๐๐ฉ๐ญ – ๐,๐๐๐๐ฉ๐ญ (๐ ๐ซ๐ข๐๐๐ฒ ๐๐ฅ๐จ๐ฌ๐: ๐,๐๐๐๐ฉ๐ญ)
* ๐๐๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐๐ญ๐ซ๐๐๐ญ ๐๐ฅ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ฅ๐จ๐ฐ๐๐ซ ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฃ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐ฆ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐จ๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐ฉ๐ซ๐ข๐๐๐-๐ข๐ง ๐๐ง๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ซ๐๐๐ฅ ๐๐๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ฏ๐๐ซ๐ฐ๐ก๐๐ฅ๐ฆ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐ง๐ข๐ญ๐๐ ๐๐ญ๐๐ญ๐๐ฌ (๐๐) ๐๐๐จ๐ง๐จ๐ฆ๐ฒ ๐๐ฆ๐๐ซ๐ ๐๐, ๐๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐๐ญ๐๐ซ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐๐๐ฌ๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ ๐๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐จ๐ฒ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ญ๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ญ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฐ๐๐ ๐ ๐ฅ๐จ๐ฌ๐ญ ๐จ๐ ๐๐๐,๐๐๐ ๐ฃ๐จ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐๐๐๐๐ฆ๐๐๐ซ, ๐ฏ๐ฌ. ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐,๐๐๐ ๐ฃ๐จ๐๐ฌ
๐๐ก๐ ๐๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐ฑ๐ฉ๐๐๐ญ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐ ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐จ๐ซ๐ญ๐๐ ๐๐ฒ ๐ฌ๐ญ๐๐๐ฅ๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐ฅ๐จ๐ฌ๐
Morning,
The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) today (1/18) is expected to be in the range of 6,300pt โ 6,425pt, likely to consolidate.ย Meanwhile, Friday last week (1/15), the DJIA closed lower by 177 points or 0.6% to 30,814pt, while the S&P500 and the Nasdaq ended lower by 0.7% and 0.9%, respectively.
๐๐ง๐ข๐ฅ๐๐ฏ๐๐ซ ๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ข๐ (๐๐๐๐): ๐ฆ๐๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐ฐ๐ข๐ญ๐ก ๐๐๐-๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐,๐๐๐/๐ฌ๐ก๐๐ซ๐ (๐ฎ๐ง๐๐ก๐๐ง๐ ๐๐)
9M20 Results
As at end of September 2020, total ย consolidated sales was recorded to grow at 0.3% YoY to IDR32.5tr, which made up of Home & Personal Care (HPC) that grew at 2% YOY, and Food & Refreshment (F&R) of -3.5% YOY.ย In the 3Q20 alone, total sales contracted 2.0% over the preceeding quarter (2Q20: -4.8%), while HPC grew at 5.9% QoQ (2Q20:-7.5%), and F&R of -10.9% QoQ (2Q20:1.5%).ย All the while profitability remain intact if not slighlty improved as compared to the historical decades ago.ย During 9M20, gross margins is at 52% (9M19:50.8%), operating margins at 21.9% (9M19: 23.3%), and net profit margins at 16.8% (9M19:17.0%). As of September last year, gearing level is at 31% (December 2019: 55%)
Worth the bet
Factoring in historical growth of the last 5 (years) for both the Home & Personal Care (HPC) and Food & Refreshment (F&R) segment, last year total revenue is expected to be IDR43.3tr (+1.9% YoY) to grow to IDR44.5tr (+2.7% YoY). Keyed-in profitability margins of 51%, 22%, and 16% for gross, operating, net profit margins, respectively.
At the latest closing price of IDR6,950 or representing an earnings multiple of 36x FY20E eaernings, slowing growths have been factored in.
With above average dividend current yield of an average of 2.9% in the last three years, or about similar to current IDR deposit rates, the vigil of growth momentum should be fruitful.
Valuations
We retain our BUY recommendation with 12M-TP 10,600/share (unchanged). At our 12M-TP, UNVR is trading at 54.8 x our FY20 estimated earnings which is in-line, or representing a slight 3% premium to its 5-years average historical multiple of 51.1x. A range of earnings multiple of 48.0x-55.0x is fair, given a counter with significant capitalizations, we argue.
At the other end, last week ย the WTI price closed lower by 2.3% to USD52.4/barrel as compared ย to the previous closeย , mainly on concerns about Chinese cities in lockdown due to the return of the virus ย outbreaksย . Meanwhile, the USDIDR ย closedย at IDR14,068 ย vs. IDR14,119 the previous one.
We advise the following recommendations, for both trading and longer-time investment purpose. ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐ (๐ฌ๐๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ ๐จ๐ ๐๐จ๐ณ๐ช, ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐จ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ ๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ฏ๐ฅ๐ฆ๐ณ๐ธ๐ฆ๐ช๐จ๐ฉ๐ต ), ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐ (๐ฌ๐๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฐ๐ข๐ญ ๐๐ช๐ฏ๐ช๐ฏ๐จ, ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐จ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ ๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ข๐ณ๐ฌ๐ฆ๐ต-๐ธ๐ฆ๐ช๐จ๐ฉ๐ต), ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐ (๐ฌ๐๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฐ๐ฏ๐ด๐ถ๐ฎ๐ฆ๐ณ, ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐จ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ ๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ท๐ฆ๐ณ๐ธ๐ฆ๐ช๐จ๐ฉ๐ต ), ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐๐,๐๐๐๐ (๐ฌ๐๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ณ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฆ, ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐จ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ ๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ท๐ฆ๐ณ๐ธ๐ฆ๐ช๐จ๐ฉ๐ต),๐๐ง๐ ๐๐๐๐ (๐ฌ๐๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ข๐ด๐ช๐ค ๐๐ฏ๐ฅ๐ถ๐ด๐ต๐ณ๐บ, ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐จ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ ๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ข๐ณ๐ฌ๐ฆ๐ต-๐ธ๐ฆ๐ช๐จ๐ฉ๐ต).
Cheers,